The last full Consensus Construction Forecast survey, conducted in December 2019 of eight industry forecasters, predicted an average of 1.5% growth in nonresidential construction spending in 2020, according to The American Institute of Architects (AIA). During the week of April 6, the same survey was conducted, and it did not show the same optimistic outlook. Instead, the project growth for 2020 has been changed to an 11% decline with the steepest decline predicted to for the commercial construction sector.
Institutional construction spending will not be as severely affected, as it is projected to have a 2.9% growth in December.
Consensus Construction Forecast, July 2020
Nonresidential total 2020 (-8.1) 2021 (-4.8)
- Commercial total 2020 (-11.6) 2021 (-8.4)
- Office 2020 (-11.1_ 2021 (-7.6)
- Retail and other commercial 2020 (-7.7) 2021 (-7.2)
- Hotel 2020 (20.5) 2021 (-16.5)
Industrial total 2020 (-8.3) 2021 (-3.3)
- Institutional total 2020 (-4.5) 2021 (-1.7)
- Health 2020 (2.4) 2021 (3.2)
- Education 2020 (-6.6) 2021 (-1.0)
- Religious 2020 (-9.9) 2021 (-5.9)
- Public safety 2020 (15.6) 2021 (2.5)
- Amusement and recreation 2020 (-13.0) 2021 (-11.9)
These data were collected from feedback provided by the eight organizations that comprise the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel the week of April 6, 2020.
